India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Our quarterly Market Handbook helps identify and analyse trends, present data-backed evidence and connect the dots to present a short-term market outlook.
Key Findings
  • Total generation in Q3 FY22 was marginally up by 2.7% compared to Q3 FY21 and decreased by 12% compared to Q2 FY22, which was affected by lower-than-normal monsoons, leading to higher power demand.
    • October: Up by 2.8%
    • November: Up by 2.4%
    • December: Up by 3.0%
    • Total Q3 FY22: Up by 2.7%
  • Overall RE generation increased by 3.5%, while large hydro generation and coal/lignite generation grew by 13.3% and 3.3%, respectively (vs. Q3 FY21).
  • From a total generation perspective, hydro, RE and coal/lignite have increased marginally compared to Q3 FY21.
    • RE: Share up from 9.0% to 9.1%
    • Hydro: Share up from 9.9% to 11.0%
    • Coal/lignite: Share up from 74.1% to 74.5%
Figure 1: Source-wise daily generation
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste-to-energy, and small hydro and do not include rooftop solar and large hydro (>25 MW) generation.
  • The overdue amount payable by discoms to power producers increased by 7% in Q3 FY22 (INR 1,23,657 crore) compared to Q2 FY22 (INR 1,15,384 crore)but declined by 14% compared to Q3 FY21 (INR 1,43,116 crore).
  • In Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the payable days decreased by more than a month in Q3 FY22 (versus Q3 FY21).
  • In December 2021, the MoP notified the progress of Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS), issued in June 2021. Meghalaya and Assam emerged as frontrunners in planning their operational and financial reforms.
  • In December 2021, the Ministry of Power (MoP) issued the draft Electricity (Late Payment Surcharge and related matters) rules, 2021 and Electricity (Promotion of Generation of Electricity from Must-Run Power Plant) Rules, 2021.
Figure 2: Discom payable and receivable days for RE rich states
Source: UDAY portal (based on data disclosed by discoms as of 30 June 2021). *Data not available for these states; values derived from 2018–19/ 2019–20 financial reports.
  • In contrast to a lacklustre Indian share market, most RE stocks in India, including Borosil Renewables, Adani Green Energy, Suzlon Energy and Inox Wind, continued to garner investor interest during Q3 FY22.
  • Borosil Renewables was up by 102% during Q3 FY22 and continues to hold a monopoly position in India’s solar glass manufacturing industry.
  • Suzlon Energy nearly doubled its revenue in Q2 FY22 (vs Q2 FY21). On the other hand, Inox Wind saw a 34% increase in its revenue for Q2 FY22 (vs Q2 FY21).
  • The share price of solar EPC company Sterling and Wilson continued to rally up. In October 2021, Reliance New Energy Solar announced a 40% acquisition of Sterling and Wilson Solar.
Figure 3: Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
Source: Money Control.
* National Securities Depository Limited.
  • The international market witnessed a tremendous rise in green and sustainability-link bond (SBL) issuance in the last three quarters. It includes the USD 3.1 billion green bonds issued by RE developers such as Greenko, ReNew Power, Acme Solar, and Adani Green Energy. JSW Steel and Adani Electricity Mumbai Limited raised USD 1.3 billion through SLB.
  • Although no new green bonds were issued in Q3 FY22, raising funds through green bonds appears promising for the RE sector in India.
  • Apart from the NTPC bond, no notable fluctuations were observed in RE bond yields in Q3 FY22.
Figure 4: Bond yields* and key financial rates
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control, and BondEvalue. *Current yield.